The Secret World of Weather (Gooley)

This narration is over pages 3-5 of The Secret World of Weather by Tristan Gooley.

 

It was Thursday in September in South Downs. There was a breeze and sunshine and the sea was a dark dull band in the distance. Looking at the oak tree, it was clear the weather would hold. How could he tell? There were "several clues and two signs" that told and we can know their secrets. 

Weather forecasts have a bad name and it started with FitzRoy. He was a "weather pioneer" in the Royal navy and coined the term "forecast" but his reward was criticism every time he was wrong. Unfortunately, FitzRoy didn't take that too well; he took his life in 1865.

It is unfortunate and even at the time, no one believed there was enough evidence to suggest someone could predict what the weather would be like for the next 48 hours. But 100 years later we had weather 'forecasts' all the time, even while there were still many doubters. Someone else said that there was very little accuracy for a forecast beyond 24 hours. 

And today? It takes mere seconds to find forecasts worldwide for days on end. How is this? We didn't actually get any better at reading the signs. We do have four advantages however in our time: more accurate and plentiful data, better machines, a better understanding of weather, and faster communication. 

Communication is actually quite important to this. It is of no use to anyone if an accurate forecast be made  for today or tomorrow but it takes two weeks to get to anyone! There had been the practice of hoisting cones up to let people know of gales but it would take entirely too much hoisting to send a message across a vast expanse. 

An example is given of a gale that rose off the coast of Ireland and forty-four sailors died as a result. The storm had been predicted but sadly the news hadn't reached so far as the islands off the mainland. 

Even today with our ten-day forecasts, it is a struggle. They are more reliable at about five or six days but begin to be doubtful after that. Just a couple of decades ago a forecast beyond a couple days would have been unbelievable whereas today, we can fairly trust a five-day forecast. There are improvements! But we still have more to make.