The Secret World of Weather (Gooley)

 Last time I ended with Gooley saying that it used to be that a forecast more than 2 days was crazy to believe (quite unreliable, and that upsets people) but more recently we have 10-day forecasts that aren't too bad (not 100% accurate but way better). I will pick up at the bottom of page 5 today. 

This development of accurate forecasts (with the help of advanced technology) has caused two problems (a disconnect) for us. It has led us to believe the weather itself cannot be its own forecaster and that the weather is detached from the land.

One noticeable thing is that tv and internet forecasts give us an unrealistic image of weather. On tv and the internet we often see large swirls of "weather" covering entire regions, when in reality it could take one many hours to even travel the region. We experience weather on a smaller scale.

When in conversation with a meteorologist, if they speak of showers, Gooley asks pointedly if it will rain in his backyard. The meteorologist will laugh of course because he knows that even with all the technology they have today, they still struggle to pinpoint where a predicted shower will fall. If they don't know the landscape personally or well, they will just kind of give up on that attempt altogether because they understand that even with all the computers put together they still cannot accurately determine exactly where. So, a 48-hour forecast was deemed impossible in the 1800s and yet with our extended forecasts today, the weather man still cannot give precise localized weather forecasts (small scale).

But we don't have this problem. With the use of our senses we are able to determine where rain will fall later, locally. First, the weatherman is trying to cater to thousands of people, in many counties. We only are concerned with our local area, which doesn't generally cover huge tracts of land. Second, the weatherman is looking at the atmosphere whereas we are looking at it as a person on the ground. So by being sensitive to the land a person can definitely learn the secrets of the weather that machines cannot.

The Secret World

The landscape shapes the weather. Machines can detect the factors that will affect the weather over large land masses but not when there is a change in landscape. All aspects of "weather" fluctuates as one walks even a short distance, up or down a hill, from one side of a tree to the other. If you mention this to a meteorologist they may get pedantic and say, no that's microclimate. But whatever they may call it, it is the weather we actually experience. 

The landscape we live in is actively shaped by the weather and the weather in turn is shaped by the landscape. Example: a wooded area is generally known for more rainfall. It allows the trees to grow, which in turn leads to more rain. He even says the rain we feel changes from one tree to another. 

A small flat island has different weather from a larger hilly one. From the air, you can even see the difference in color from one side to the other. One any day you may see sunbathers on the dry coasts of the Canary Islands and then rain-soaked plants on the opposite side. 

He talks next about Swiss Jura where on the two sides of a 2600 foot high ridge the climate is so drastically different it is like what we normally find traveling 625 miles across and/or 3000 feet in altitude in one single step. This proves that weather is and can be very different over very small spaces.

Another example of the extreme differences that can be detected in small areas is the juniper bush of the temperate zones of both the US and Europe. On the north side it can be as different from the south side as if we traveled 3000 miles, but it's just a few yards difference really. 

These are not theoretical or merely academic facts and figures. We can figure the average and probable weather conditions from the microclimate, but it also dictates the weather. These are our clues and with them we can learn to recognize and predict changes in weather. 

On a walk in early December, Gooley stepped into heathland from under some pines, expecting a chill in the air. He experienced just what he expected and saw some iced puddles, whereas in the wooded areas and grasslands it was not as cold. This is because heathland loses heat quickly at night resulting in cooler temperatures than surrounding land. He says we'll learn more about why it loses heat in the next chapter. 

Meteorologists are aware of these vast fluctuations and position their 'meters' at heights that will avoid them. It is ironic that those who forecast the weather go to such measures to avoid the very things that we actually experience when it comes to weather. They have perfected (well, made great strides toward this) predicting and understanding "big weather" and it has definitely proven its worth but they have also shortchanged us into thinking of weather as much bigger than it is where we actually are. 

In this book we will look at our local landscapes, towns and cities, in the hills and trees. Much will overlap with the big weather of the meteorologists but most are nestling in our small, local landscapes. It is the secret world of weather.

I have stopped before the next subheading of The Blocking High on page 9.